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While he stayed on as chairman, Mr Guinness wanted to keep his hand in managing money so he took on the task of running what was then the £2m Investec Global Energy fund. In 2003 he set up Guinness Asset Management and got Investec to outsource the global energy mandates to him. He turned this part of the business into a huge revenue generator for Investec, growing the mandates to $2.4bn before they decided to take the management in-house in February this year.
Mr Guinness was quick off the mark and launched his very own fund in March – the Guinness Global Energy fund. In just four months he has raised $80m. He is very much a believer in concentrated portfolios. The fund has 30 equally-weighted stocks which are rebalanced regularly. These make up the core element of the fund. There are an additional 10 smaller company stocks but these only account for 1 per cent of the overall portfolio.
Half the process focuses on the top down macroeconomics while the other half is bottom up driven. There is a screening tool in place that filters the universe of some 270 stocks with market capitalisations of over $1bn. Stocks are scored based on various valuation metrics such as p/e ratios, enterprise value/proven reserves and cash flow metrics. The screening also takes into account the quality of businesses using cash flow return on investment analysis, changes in sentiment based on analysts’ earnings forecast and buying and selling activity. Essentially, Mr Guinness is looking to identify strong companies with improving sentiment and cheap valuations.
Don’t be fooled into thinking Mr Guinness is a one-man band. He has a team of young, enthusiastic and bright individuals working for him. He has four dedicated analysts on this fund, although the ultimate decision lies with him. The analysts are split by sectors and the top-down views are generated by Mr Guinness.
Clearly, the energy sector has had a phenomenal run in recent years and some argue its short term outlook is a little cloudy. Mr Guinness believes the bull market in energy runs in cycles of 14 years and we are currently in the ninth year, so on a medium-term view there is still plenty of upside, although we can’t rule out volatility along the way.
Interestingly, the MSCI World Energy index has significantly lagged the oil price over the last six years despite the recent softening in the price. Mr Guinness believes the integrated oil stocks are trading on a 60 per cent discount to the S&P 500, making them cheap on valuation grounds. Historically they have traded above the market.
The long-term fundamentals for energy are very much intact. Strong demand from the East will keep prices firm, but Mr Guinness also argues that companies will grow strongly on the back of solid earnings from higher oil prices (even after the government take) and from multiple expansion. With these factors combined he could see returns of 50-150 per cent from energy equities over the next five years.
The most burning question on many people’s minds might be the outlook for the oil price in the short term. Mr Guinness’ most probable scenario is that oil is likely to correct to the $80-100 per barrel range. Since I met him a few weeks ago, the oil price has already fallen. Even if this happens, we are still in the middle of a secular bull market for energy and I have no doubt that over the longer term Mr Guinness will also turn this fund into a success, as he did with Investec’s fund.
Meera Patel is senior fund analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown
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