New Star economist warns of bigger economic dip in a year

The downswing in the UK economy is already quite mature, however, the economy could face greater falls again next year, according to New Star chief economist Simon Ward.

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Speaking at a media presentation this morning (4 June), Ward said that the economic weakness had been less dramatic than some feared and the UK could be in for a soft landing this year.

"The downswing is already quite mature and the economy is expected to have a soft landing reaching a trough around the middle of 2008."

Ward forecasts an economic recovery for the first half of 2009, but accepted that the recent surge in food and oil prices could hamper this.

He warned that there was a strong possibility that after the recovery, the economy face trouble again in 2009 or even 2010.

"Bigger problems may emerge in late 2009 and 2010," he said, indicating that there could be the chance of a real recession.

Despite the mixed outlook, Ward was upbeat on the US economy and said it was no longer dragging other economies down.

According to Ward, the US is now poised for recovery and is likely to be one of the faster growing economies in the next six months.

He also predicted that emerging economies will continue to grow strongly until 2009, but are likely to slow in the second half of 2009 and throughout 2010.

Ward was also positive about prospects for the rental market, forecasting between 7 to 8 per cent growth in rents for the year ahead.

However, he warned: "If we have a recession, house prices could fall 30 per cent on current levels."

To read the latest FT Adviser blog on the credit crunch and UK prospects click here and add your comments.

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